Expert: ‘Climate threats already impacting Cayman’

The Cayman Islands could face sea-level rise of more than a foot by the middle of the century as well as the threat of extreme hurricanes, intense rainfall events and unprecedented flooding.

That’s the verdict of Lisa-Ann Hurlston, a climate consultant, member of the National Conservation Council and the lead author of Cayman’s draft climate change policy.

In an interview with the Compass, she outlines some of the biggest threats facing the island, as well as progress made on plans and policies to mitigate those risks.

Q: What are the most imminent threats to Cayman from climate change, in your view?

The most imminent threats to the Cayman Islands from climate change are acute climate hazards, such as intense rainfall events causing predictable or unprecedented flooding, extreme wind or heat waves, and cyclonic events, all of which can cause property damage and loss of life at worst or, to a lesser extent, disrupt lives and livelihoods. 

Chronic climate hazards, such as sea-level rise, changing temperature patterns and even mid- to longer-term drought, can be forecasted and therefore afford more time for preparation and planned responses by individuals, governments and economies at large.

Among the most imminent threats are those yet to be fully understood or those not planned for.

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Climate changes are happening all over the world, affecting production of raw materials, food and commodities, and disrupting supply chains that will continue to have ripple effects across the globe.

The COVID-19 pandemic may be a good example of this, with lessons for how we cope with climate change exacerbated by external shocks beyond our full control but for which we must plan and adapt life accordingly.

Q: What are the main practical steps we can take as a country, or as individuals, to be ready for the changes that are coming?

As a country, we must have a climate change strategy to manage current and future risks, and take advantage of any opportunities that may arise. Planning for all eventualities may not be possible, but a national adaptation strategy which reduces exposure and vulnerabilities to current weather-related and anticipated climatic impacts may likely have co-benefits in other areas of the economy. 

Nations, economic sectors and companies worldwide are utilising several frameworks and tools to understand their risk exposure in the form of economic losses, stranded assets, inaccurate valuations etc., to capture the full breadth of expected changes and how to ease the transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy.

Preparation is equally important at the individual and business levels. Just as we plan for hurricanes and earthquakes, so must we prepare households and businesses to withstand local weather extremes and overseas disasters that may have ramifications locally. It is important to keep oneself informed with the most current, reliable information and take responsibility for one’s own family or enterprise circumstance to ensure physical and economic resiliency.

Q: How much of our existing plans and policies are fit-for-purpose, given the changing situation globally? How much do they speak to readiness/resilience as opposed to playing a part in averting climate change?

‘Fit-for-purpose policies’ would address the implications of higher day and night-time temperatures, more intense rainfall events, more frequent and longer droughts, more severe hurricanes, and additional sea rise of 1.25 feet by mid-century and 3-5 feet by 2100. 

The UK’s Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science and Centre for Ecology and Hydrology are currently undertaking a Climate Change Risk Assessment on behalf of the government to gain a comprehensive understanding of the physical impacts on these islands from such climatic changes and prioritise associated threats to communities and economic sectors. 

An evaluation of our physical, economic and societal readiness and level of resiliency in relation to existing plans and policies will then be better known. The risk analysis should afford a re-examination of policies to further incentivise behaviour toward climate resilience in each sector and across society.

It is critical that we also identify and develop plans to address risks associated with transitioning to a low-carbon economy alongside similar shifts worldwide which could affect local economic sectors to varying degrees, including our financial services industry. Transition risks include introduction of new technology, shifts in climate policy and consumer preferences, and liability, market and reputation risks. 

Timely attention to these can avert risks and even bring opportunities, such as resource efficiency, new energy sources, markets for new products or services, and enhanced national or sector resilience.

We may not have all the pertinent data needed or collated to inform better policymaking across the board at present.

Some sectors may be more ahead of the readiness curve than others; for example, since 2019, the health sector should have been implementing the Caribbean Action Plan on Health and Climate Change, including investing in climate-smart healthcare facilities and other measures to build a more resilient health system.

The evidentiary link to increased incidents of locally changing climatic conditions and other pressures has led to recent enhanced protections for our nearshore and reef environments, which will benefit our fisheries sector and habitats upon which they depend, affording continued recreational and cultural use of these resources.

Q: Do you think the community has had a change in mindset on this issue over the past decade? Do you think we understand what might happen and are we collectively ready to do what needs to be done?

Severe hurricanes like Ivan or more recent events like Tropical Storm Grace tend to be catalysts for changing mindsets and taking action. Experience has shown interest is short-lived once recovery from these events occurs and complacency often sets in until the next incident. 

Hence, building on momentum generated by UN climate summits and international media coverage of the devastating effects of heat waves and wildfires, floods and winter storms, rapidly generated and longer-lasting tropical cyclones, and several countries declaring climate emergencies, which places focus on local impacts and discourse on resilience, is key. 

The younger generation has a very clear understanding of what they are set to inherit and that a more perilous situation with an exponentially greater economic and societal price tag can be substantially lessened, if public and private sector investments in adaptation and mitigation projects and national policies were made now.

There are still many in the community that believe climate change is some future occurrence; they do not appreciate the observed impacts are a result of the climatic changes that have taken place since the beginning of the industrial revolution, much less the accelerated trends in the last 40 years, all unquestionably attributed to deleterious human economic activities.

It’s fair to say we need to better understand how many in our collective community fall into each camp, and craft messaging or provide information needed to improve not only their respective climate literacy but, more importantly, their capacity to or assistance required for climate readiness, especially for our most vulnerable groups disproportionately affected by climate change.